The Blame Game
The blame game,
I find it very interesting that entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were invented to uphold housing values. The Federal Home Loan Bank Act of 1932 during President Hoover term was his solution to falling housing values during The Great Depression.
During Presidents Roosevelt’s term in 1933 the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) was enacted and refinanced almost one million mortgages which were in default or distress for a cost of approx $3.1 billion. HOLC stopped refinancing mortgages in 1936. Per Fanny Mae a typical home in distress had lost at least 15% of its market value. HOLC secondary mission was to liquidate through foreclosure approx 198,000 mortgages it had refinanced. During the new deal mortgages extended their length from 5-7 years up to 30 years.
GSE’s are designed to be highly inflationary by broadening the base of people who can purchase housing, therefore increasing housing values. In the case of The Great Depression it was designed to prevent deflation.
Interestingly enough, this tactic only works if you can borrow money. If your country cannot effetely borrow money due to all of your partners also facing banking crises, then this tactic has no effect on housing values keeping pace with general hyperinflation.This is due to the fact that if the country that buys your countries debt just creates new money (prints money) to buy your debt, it is the same as if your country just creates new money.
I find it very interesting that entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were invented to uphold housing values. The Federal Home Loan Bank Act of 1932 during President Hoover term was his solution to falling housing values during The Great Depression.
During Presidents Roosevelt’s term in 1933 the Home Owners’ Loan Corporation (HOLC) was enacted and refinanced almost one million mortgages which were in default or distress for a cost of approx $3.1 billion. HOLC stopped refinancing mortgages in 1936. Per Fanny Mae a typical home in distress had lost at least 15% of its market value. HOLC secondary mission was to liquidate through foreclosure approx 198,000 mortgages it had refinanced. During the new deal mortgages extended their length from 5-7 years up to 30 years.
GSE’s are designed to be highly inflationary by broadening the base of people who can purchase housing, therefore increasing housing values. In the case of The Great Depression it was designed to prevent deflation.
Interestingly enough, this tactic only works if you can borrow money. If your country cannot effetely borrow money due to all of your partners also facing banking crises, then this tactic has no effect on housing values keeping pace with general hyperinflation.This is due to the fact that if the country that buys your countries debt just creates new money (prints money) to buy your debt, it is the same as if your country just creates new money.
posted by Chromatic Dispersion at 9/22/2005 04:44:00 PM
45 Comments:
Good to see you posting again man, here and at the housingbubble2.blogspot.com, it seems I always learn a little something new...
Sorry to make a 2nd post...
Some people have made comments to the effect that "the business of America is Business", or IOW the Fed. is all to happy to let many small time home owners & investors go down in order to save the banks and big business as these are the true foundations of the US economy.
Do you think that is what will happen or do you think the .gov will enact something similar to Hoover's 1933 Federal Home Loan Bank Act or FDR's HOLC regardless of wether or not they'll actually help the economy (for appearances' sake?)?
Brent,
Thanks for the encouragement. I have been very busy doing research into The Great Depression, The Argentina Hyper Inflation, and US Banking History.
Historically, even before The Federal Reserve was invented in 1913 the US has pursued a policy of manipulating the banking system for the debtor and against the creditor. Even though records are scarce early on, it becomes very obvious that inflating currency benefits the government by reducing the countries debt load by paying off past debts with money with has lost much of its purchasing power.
Interestingly enough property rights have generally have been lost from the creditors and given to the debtors. Therefore if educated into the ways of banking, historically, it has been better to be the borrower right before any banking crisis as the government outlaws the creditors rights to assume the defaulting debtors property.
Before one national currency money brokers would collect various bank notes from different banks. The notes would devalue as the physical distance grew between the bank and the acceptor of the notes as payment. During the Banking Panic of 1819 Maryland and Pennsylvania passed laws which allowed banks to ignore redeeming notes held by money brokers.
Obviously The Great Depression under President Hoover followed a policy of removing property rights from creditors in favor of debtors with programs like HOLC and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation as the government supported businesses by lending to troubled lenders. Therefore most of this money went back into the banking system to repay defaulting loans. Banking Holidays were also enacted so that banks didn’t have to redeem the property of their depositors, and still stay in business.
During the S&L Scandal the government took the S&L’s off of GAAP accounting and put them on RAP accounting in order to hide insolvency. Federal Home Loan Bank Board permitted the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) to buy Income Capital Certificates from insolvent S&L’s. This allows the S&L’s to appear solvent on their balance sheets when they are in fact insolvent.
The Present
America has several problems beyond just the housing bubble, which is really a banking crisis. The first real problem how will the government handle mass defaulting mortgages. They will probably allow the borrowers to skip payments for a year or two while also supporting the banks. This problem is more complex in this era due to most of the debt being held by foreign banks, whose members do not vote in our elections.
The second problem is how to support deficit spending if housing and the GDP generated from this industry and revolving industries declines. This means less taxes generated form our country and an increase in our sovereign debt.
The third problem is if the US goes into a banking crisis the rest of the world also goes into a banking crisis. Since their banks are also overextended this means that the only way countries can acquire debt is by printing money. This leads to hyperinflation to the country whose debt is being acquired as this is the same as just printing money.
The fourth problem is the $55 trillion is Social Security, Medicare, and other social obligation debt that the government owes to its own people. This is just like in Argentina and this also leads to hyperinflation as the government will be forced to print money in order to pay debts if this situation is not corrected.
Right now the government is doing the equivalent of public works in a military build up like Italy pre World War 2. As most new jobs are in some way connected with the war effort the money we are borrowing is not locked into as asset like housing. Therefore the new currency in the money supply is actually increasing in circulation as salaries are paid. If US citizens continue to invest their money this will keep prices for goods and services under control, but Americans are in fact using this money to buy housing, then taking this money out of housing and buying goods and services.
I foresee a continuation of present policy which is very similar to 1930’s era new deal programs hidden under the guise of defense. I also would expect to see the government take early measures to bail out defaulting home owners. The Fed’s and US government policy it seems to me is To Act Early.
Wow, thanks for all the info. (not sure if I understand it all though ;(, I understand very little about how the economy works now or historically) but what about the changes made to the BK laws recently? While I don't claim to understand them myself others have said they make it so that you've got a "creative" mortage loan or used your house as collateral for a loan then the creditors can go after anything you've got (house, wages, possesions, etc.) which seems to contradict what you'll think will happen (that the creditors rights to take your possesions away will be stripped in a Great Depression-esque crisis (which is what you seem to be suggesting we may be headed for, though instead of massive deflation we'll see massive inflation a la Argentina?)), or is that false?
Thanks!!
Brent,
I litigated a $6.5 billion dollar bankruptcy back in 2001 when my client went bankrupt. I won and I obtained all money owed to me and my company.
The new bankruptcy laws have given additional property rights to creditors at the expanse of borrowers. These laws effect those who make more than above have the average income of the state you reside in. Of course anyone who lives in any major metro area falls under this rule.
There are two types of debt that the average person should be concerned with, secured debt and unsecured debt.
Secured debt is debt with some kind of collateral backing it up such as a car, house, equities, money in a bank account, etc…
Unsecured debt is debt which is totally dependent upon the borrower’s ability to pay the debt back. This would be credit card debt, medical debt, personal loans, etc…
If the borrower defaults upon secured debt then normally the creditor can obtain the underlying asset.
If the borrower defaults upon unsecured debt, then the creditor may not be able to ever get even one penny of the money borrowed back
What the bankruptcy law does if you qualify is that it makes unsecured debt into secured debt by making the borrower an indentured servant for up to 5 years in order to repay the debt.
When a borrower defaults upon a mortgage, no matter what kind of mortgage, then the mortgage is underwater or the money lent is greater than the present of the home.
The difference between the sale price and the mortgage during foreclosure is considered unsecured debt that the borrower may owe if they do not have insurance.
The new bankruptcy law makes them essentially slaves for up to 5 years to the banks in order to repay the defaulted mortgage.
Chromatic Dispersion
OK, that would suck then but thats waay better than getting your house/car/posessions taken away or your wages garnished til' the mortage was paid...
Sounds like you know your way around the BK laws to litigate a multi billion dollar case!!! As an OT question, how do you think the SCO vs. IBM Linux case will go if Novell gets a trust established to protect the money they claim is thiers according to the contract as its looking like it might bankrupt SCO?
Thanks for the reply,
Brent
Wow man.....you are back. It is a nice surprise as I enjoyed reading your posts in the past - especially that systemic risk PDF from the OFHEO. Also of related interest - is that working paper that Greenspan just made public about his investigation of the housing and mortgage markets. (link - http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2005/200541/200541abs.html).
My main reason for posting though is some follow up questions to the comments that you had to Brent. I have been reading some books about banking crises, inflation, etc. in a more abstract way though - looking more at theory behind both - where it seems like you are focusing on the practical real world case examples in connection/correlation with the political acts which helped to reinforce each cycle (your approach may be more practical and thus more applicable).
Anyways, here is where I am at in my own analysis of the current US economic situation. I see a whirlwind of different forces interacting with each other (Fed rate increases, record mortgage debt, huge deficit spending, etc.) Some of them seem to counteract each other (re: deficit spending v. rate increases), while others appear to reinforce each other.
The only predominant theme that I really believe in after looking at the data is that the strongest most reinforcing cycle would be the down cycle in property and real estate. Not only are huge percentages of the population using their home "equity" as a piggy bank, they are also WORKING in the industry. Day after day I talk to old friends who have just quit their jobs to go into real estate. I work in the insurance business and several of our employees are quitting to become realtors - yes even at this point in the cycle. If the property market dies, all of the job growth that went along with it is also going to go. This could really create one of the strongest and most self-reinforcing cycles to the downside that we have ever seen, as the deeper people go into debt and the less money they are making on the job, theyare forced to liquidate properties where they never really had "equity." They were buying on spec essentially and did not even know. They thought they were investing in a "sure" thing just like the stock market bubble.
Now I am thinking that this down cycle would have a huge deflationary impact. Enough of an impact to kill commodity prices, to kill any inflation in the economy completely and actually get us into a real pits end of the world type scenario. I am guessing that your key assumption here is that the Government is going to see this deflation coming soon enough before it gets here and be there to fight it with helicopter money in that they would rather risk a hyperinflation than another great depression. The war will help this, the deficit spending in the south will help this, etc. It will also help them meet their obligatoin to the medicare and social security beneficiaries quite conveniently.
If what I just wrote is comprehensible - please try and comment and highlight what you think are key points in your opinion regarding our country's economic future and how you agree/disagree with my reading.
One more follow up point - regarding the new bankruptcy laws and mortgage insurance. You mentioned that mortgage insurance may help to handle any deficit on the loan amount v. sale price. Unfortunately it is my understanding that when a lot of the spec buyers do 100% financing with the piggy back loan they actually avoid the PMI requirement as they are in effect putting 20% "down" on the property with the 2nd. Try and figure that one out, LOL.
Ben Green,
Thanks for the fed report, I am still reading it and looking at the very large amounts of support data in the appendices.
I agree that we shall see deflation of housing, however, this deflation should not be measured using the absolute magnitude of the US dollar as the purchasing value of the dollar shall fluxuate.
For over 300 hundred years of paper money in the United States starting in 1691, the banking system has grappled with either using hard currency (gold and silver coins) or paper currency. The paper currency, by its very nature of ease of creation acts as a defacto fractional reserve banking scheme as governments always print more money than they have assets to back it up with.
Murray N. Rothbard writes this about the US currency on a gold standard
“The years shortly before and after 1900 proved to be the beginnings of the drive toward the establishment of a Federal Reserve System. It was also the origin of the gold-exchange standard, the fateful system imposed upon the world by the British in the 1920s and by the United States after World War II at Bretton Woods
Even more than the case of a gold standard with a central bank, the gold-exchange standard establishes a system, in the name of gold, which in reality manages to install coordinated international inflationary paper money. The idea was to replace a genuine gold standard, in which each country (or, domestically, each bank) maintains its reserves in gold, by a pseudo-gold standard in which the central bank of the client country maintains its reserves in some key or base currency, say pounds or dollars
Thus, during the 1920s, most countries maintained their reserves in pounds, and only Britain purported to redeem pounds in gold. This meant that these other countries were really on a pound rather than a gold standard, although they were able, at least temporarily, to acquire the prestige of gold. It also meant that when Britain inflated pounds, there was no danger of losing gold to these other countries, who, quite the contrary, happily inflated their own currencies on top of their expanding balances in pounds sterling
Thus, there was generated an unstable, inflationary system—all in the name of gold—in which client states pyramided their own inflation on top of Great Britain’s. The system was eventually bound to collapse, as did the gold-exchange standard in the Great Depression and Bretton Woods by the late 1960s. In addition, the close ties based on pounds and then dollars meant that the key or base country was able to exert a form of economic imperialism, joined by its common paper and pseudo-gold inflation, upon the client states using the key money”
Therefore as the gold standard was actually implemented it is easy to see that it was really just based on belief on the government’s ability to redeem dollars for gold, but obviously without the government’s ability to actually do so in reality.
In order to have deflation, ignoring the Fed’s ability to inflate the currency to make up for compression of the currency (money destroyed through debt forgiveness, bankruptcy, etc…) three things have to happen.
You have to have another currency that you can freely convert your money into.
You have to be able to get your money out of the fractional reserve monetary system.
People and business have to take their money out of the banking system en-mass.
As the US has only the dollar, and all other currencies are based upon the dollar, there is no currency to go into that will not be impacted by the Fed inflating the dollar.
With credit cards, mortgages, loans, pensions, and all of the other ubiquitous web of financial transactions we use everyday and don’t realize it, it is now impossible to separate from the banking system.
Do to the same reasons before and laws and regulations, their cannot be a mass run on the banks as we are too connected to credit cards and other forms of loans disguised as money. Unlike the Depression, whereas people took their money out of the bank, we shall still owe the creditors through credit cards and mortgages money.
Therefore deflation in absolute terms is going to be impossible, however if measured against earning year over year deflation is very possible.
This is due to inflationary pressures go where the money is needed. So when the money supply is expanded through mortgages, the money created is trapped in the mortgage.
When a person takes money out of their respective mortgage and buys goods, this money is split between the currency in use to pay salaries and other stuff in our country, the rest is sent to another country which actually created the device, adding to the negative trade balance.
Therefore if money is created to support the workers who shall be out of work when the building industry collapses, this money is added to the pool of money used in the US. If this money is not sent oversees, then this money creates inflation in goods and services as too much money in circulation pushes up prices.
Eventually salaries must come up as inflation hits, so housing may not move at all, therefore housing may depreciating just by not keeping up with inflation of goods and services. So I would rate housing to the total money supply verses how much a home cost.
It is also interesting to note that during a banking crisis property rights of the creditor are removed in favor of the debtor, always. Therefore even though very few people have PMI to insure their underwater mortgages, they may gain the same benefit in the end and not be required to pay on their debt or too pay it back with devalued money.
Chromatic Dispersion
Brent,
Sorry, I answered the other question and forgot about yours.
SCO vs. IBM Intellectual property case. I would need to ask my Patent Attorney about this one. I am in Optical Devices and I do not follow software at all. My degree is in electrical engineering and I only get involved in other peoples bankruptcies if they owe me or my company money.
It is not uncommon for a larger company to sue the smaller company into bankruptcy, thereby exhausting their claim for lack of money to pursue it. I would really have to be involved in this case or even industry to understand it.
Experience has taught me that getting trust is very hard, especially in ill defined cases so I would doubt that Novell would be able to get a trust. If they did get a positive ruling to separate the money, then this may very well be over ruled latter.
Chromatic Dispersion
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